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Market News 9/02
Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average concluded its strongest week since July, with investors showing optimism in response to a robust jobs report. In August, the economy saw an increase of 187,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate edged up from 3.5% to 3.8%. These numbers indicate a moderation in the labor market's growth pace, but it does not appear to be swift enough to trigger a recession.
Resilient U.S. Economy Defies Expectations
There is a saying that suggests economic expansions don't naturally come to an end but are typically influenced by the Federal Reserve's actions. If that's the case, it appears that the U.S. economy is staying ahead of any potential challenges this year.
Consistent job growth and strong consumer spending are the most recent indications that, despite the Federal Reserve's most aggressive interest-rate increases in 40 years, the economy has demonstrated unexpected resilience, largely due to the effects of the pandemic and the unprecedented government policies implemented.
Employers added 3.1 million jobs over the past year, with 187,000 added in August, according to the Labor Department's report. Although the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in July to 3.8%, this was largely due to more Americans rejoining the workforce.
Three key factors can explain why the U.S. economy continues to defy predictions of a recession.
Firstly, a growing workforce and slower inflation have led to an increase in Americans' inflation-adjusted or "real" incomes this year, stimulating more hiring and consumer spending.
Secondly, the unique circumstances of the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted spending patterns, resulting in shortages of goods, housing, and labor. This created significant pent-up demand, which, for the time being, has shown resilience to higher interest rates.
Tech
ChatGPT heads to class
When it comes to the use of ChatGPT in education, the prevailing sentiment among U.S. educators seems to be "if you can't beat them, join them." This viewpoint has become increasingly common as they approach the first full school year in which ChatGPT will be accessible to students.
Initially, many of the largest school districts in the country banned the use of the chatbot, particularly after instances of "As an AI, I..." phrases appearing in students' essays. However, a recent survey by the EdWeek Research Center reveals that approximately three-quarters of K-12 educators now consider it at least "fairly important" to teach students how to use AI tools effectively.
Furthermore, educators have recognized that prohibiting ChatGPT in schools may put students without access to computers or smartphones at a disadvantage. As a result, New York City schools lifted their restrictions in May, and Los Angeles schools are also working to relax their anti-ChatGPT policies, as reported by the New York Times.
Some educators view ChatGPT as a valuable tool that can be used like a calculator, reducing tedious tasks and allowing students and teachers to allocate more mental energy to higher-level thinking tasks that are uniquely human. Potential classroom applications include using ChatGPT as a debate partner to identify weaknesses in arguments, as a brainstorming companion for essay topics, or even for teachers to assess assignment difficulty based on ChatGPT's performance, with students providing critiques of the bot's responses.
However, concerns persist about chatbot-enabled cheating and plagiarism, especially given OpenAI's announcement about the unreliability of AI-generated content detectors. To address these concerns, educators may increasingly rely on live proctoring or monitoring software. Some have even started conducting in-person baseline assessments at the beginning of the school year to spot any significant discrepancies, such as a student who suddenly employs advanced vocabulary like "antidisestablishmentarianism."
Education
Schools are going micro
Imagine a school: typically, it's a sizable brick building filled with students and the faint scent of chalk. However, a novel type of school, characterized by far fewer pupils, is gaining popularity.
These are known as microschools, catering to a range of five to 25 students who follow homeschooling curricula, overseen by an adult who may not necessarily be a certified teacher. According to Don Soifer, the head of the National Microschooling Center, there are approximately 125,000 microschools in the United States, serving around 1.5 million students, as reported by EducationWeek.
What's driving the growth of these compact educational institutions? A significant factor is the surge in homeschooling during the pandemic, coupled with increased funding opportunities for these smaller learning environments.
As some states implement voucher systems for private schools, around a dozen of them permit these funds to be used for homeschooling, including microschools. Additionally, venture capitalists have invested tens of millions of dollars in companies that cater to this market, such as Prenda and KaiPod, which assist parents in establishing their own microschools.
Proponents of microschools argue that their small size facilitates more personalized, student-centered learning environments. However, critics point out that, although regulations vary by state, microschools are often subject to fewer standards and rules compared to public and private schools. This raises concerns about the potential for subpar education quality or even the risk of abuse.
Looking ahead, Soifer acknowledges that microschools are still in the "early adoption stage." The continued growth of these schools may be influenced by various policy decisions, which could either accelerate or hinder their expansion.
Food
MA students getting their lunch paid by millionaires
Nowadays, there's a new reality: free lunch is on the menu, and this applies to all students attending public schools in Massachusetts.
In the state, students will be provided with complimentary breakfast and lunch on a permanent basis, even as pandemic-era school meal programs have come to an end. The costs for these meals will be covered by the recently implemented "millionaires tax."
Last November, residents of Massachusetts voted to impose a 4% tax on the income of state residents exceeding $1 million. This tax is anticipated to generate approximately $1 billion for the state's 2024 budget, with more than half of these funds allocated to education, including the provision of free school meals.
So, why is offering free lunch worth it?
Advocates argue that serving meals in schools helps ensure that children don't have to learn on an empty stomach. Charging students for lunch can make it challenging for those from lower-income households to obtain sufficient calories.
The provision of free lunch appears to boost the number of students who consume meals at school. It's believed that a federal pandemic-era program offering free school meals played a role in schools serving an additional 80 million meals in 2022 compared to the year before the pandemic.
In the bigger picture, Massachusetts now joins seven other states that also offer free school lunches, funded through various measures, including a 3-cent property tax rate increase and reduced income tax deductions.
Health
New vapes look like school supplies
Just in time for the start of the new school year, e-cigarette manufacturers have discovered that high-school students are drawn not only to flavors like creamsicle but also to vapes that are cleverly disguised as everyday school supplies, such as neon highlighters, USB drives, and ballpoint pens.
These vaping products are readily available through the internet, the black market, or even your friend's older cousin Todd. The concern among authorities is that these covert e-cigarettes may pose a serious challenge to efforts aimed at reducing teen nicotine use. Despite attempts by the FDA to regulate the vaping industry, manufacturers of e-cigarettes continue to find ways around these regulations.
In 2020, the FDA prohibited flavored e-cigarettes for cartridge-based devices like Juuls. However, this ban does not extend to disposable vapes, which are favored by more than half of high school and middle school students who vape. Since 2020, the number of different vape devices in the United States has tripled, reaching nearly 9,000, largely due to the influx of unauthorized vapes from China, as reported by the Associated Press.
Taking a broader view, as the vaping industry evolves at a pace that outpaces FDA regulation, some state governments are taking action to combat vaping. Recently, a Texas law came into effect, mandating that students caught with a vape will be sent to an alternative school disciplinary program.
Politics
Trump Is Top Choice for Nearly 60% of GOP Voters
A recent Wall Street Journal poll reveals that Donald Trump's lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination has significantly expanded. This growth in his popularity among GOP primary voters comes as a large majority of them perceive the four criminal prosecutions against him as lacking validity. Approximately half of these voters also state that these indictments further strengthen their support for Trump.
The latest survey indicates a significant shift in the nomination race. What was once a competitive contest with multiple candidates has now transformed into a one-sided affair. Donald Trump currently holds the top position with the support of 59% of GOP primary voters, marking an increase of 11 percentage points since April when a slightly different field of potential candidates was tested.
In comparison, Trump's lead over his closest competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, has nearly doubled since April, now standing at a substantial 46 percentage points. DeSantis, with 13% support, is only marginally ahead of other candidates in the field, none of whom have managed to break into double-digit support levels.