🐂 End of an Era

Markets

The Nasdaq secured a victory amid declines in other averages, thanks to the surge in tech stocks. Nvidia reached a new peak, while Juniper Networks experienced a significant boost following reports from the Wall Street Journal suggesting an imminent acquisition by Hewlett-Packard. The official announcement of the $14 billion deal was made yesterday evening.

Economy

The world economy is slowing down

Despite the initial optimism for a global economic resurgence reminiscent of the Roaring Twenties, the current trajectory suggests a more somber economic performance, akin to melancholic blues. The World Bank recently reported that the early 2020s are on track to be the most challenging half-decade for global economic growth in over three decades.

Although the United States is exhibiting strength and major economies are curbing inflation without triggering a global recession, World Bank Chief Economist Indermit S. Gill paints a gloomy overall picture. He anticipates a sluggish expansion of global GDP at 2.4% this year, falling below last year's 2.6% and the 2010s' annual average of 3.1%. Additionally, projections indicate a significant slowdown in per capita investment growth in 2024 to 3.7%, less than half the annual average of the preceding two decades.

Low-income countries are expected to bear the brunt of this economic downturn, grappling with soaring borrowing costs and decelerating global trade growth. The World Bank warns that the modest growth may hinder the United Nations' goals of eliminating extreme poverty and reducing greenhouse gas emissions by nearly half by 2030. Moreover, it foresees that, by the end of 2024, 25% of people in low-income countries will remain poorer than they were before the pandemic.

World Bank Chief Economist Gill emphasizes that the 2020s could become a "decade of wasted opportunity" unless low-income countries enhance investment and foster international trade. The unexpectedly positive performance of the U.S. economy could provide some relief, as noted by World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose in discussions with Axios.

Finance

What recession?

As we step into 2024, a multitude of fleeting micro-trends is anticipated, many of which will likely be forgotten within a couple of months—enter the era of "grandpa core."

However, one persistent topic from 2023 that won't be easily left behind is the speculation surrounding a potential recession. Encouragingly, a new chapter seems to be unfolding, particularly in the realm of earnings calls.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, the ominous term "recession" made its appearance in only 239 earnings call transcripts, marking the lowest count since the first quarter of 2022, as per the Wall Street Journal's analysis of FactSet data. This is a significant drop from the 790 mentions recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Apparently, time does heal all wounds, and it's easy to overlook the relentless discussions about an impending recession that dominated recent earnings calls. Any dip in sales was swiftly attributed to the looming threat of a recession, becoming a commonplace explanation.

In the recent quarter, however, when executives did bring up the term, it was often in the context of specific challenges within struggling industries, and the alarmist tone that characterized previous quarters was notably absent.

Crime

Swatters are targeting politicians

A perilous prank that once plagued video game livestreamers has shifted its focus to prominent figures in the US government.

Recently, swatters targeted Tanya Chutkan, the federal judge overseeing the case related to Donald Trump's alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election. False claims of a shooting at her residence were made, marking the latest incident in a surge of swatting—harassment involving misleading calls to the police to prompt a SWAT team response.

Various federal lawmakers, including Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, New York Rep. Brandon Williams, and Florida Sen. Rick Scott, have fallen victim to swatting. Jack Smith, the special counsel prosecuting former President Trump, experienced a swatting incident on Christmas Day. The dangerous calls often involve fake reports of bomb threats, murders, or burglaries, creating risky situations as law enforcement responds, prepared for potential armed criminals. In some instances, unrelated to the recent political incidents, fatalities have occurred.

As the Iowa caucuses mark the beginning of the election season in January, experts express concerns that the rise in swatting could influence how politicians conduct themselves, similar to the impact of violent threats in the past.

The surge in threats extends beyond swatting, with over a dozen state capitols being closed or evacuated last week due to fake bomb threats received by election officials via email. Attorney General Merrick Garland emphasized that these threats to violence pose a significant risk to the foundation of democracy.

In response to these incidents, several politicians are advocating for legislation that would facilitate the identification of swatting perpetrators and impose stricter penalties. Currently, no arrests have been made in connection with these crimes, as the perpetrators often employ fake caller ID or phone spoofing software to remain untraceable.

Politics

Judges seem skeptical of total immunity for Trump

Yesterday, former President Donald Trump and his legal team appeared in a federal appeals court in Washington, DC, where they argued that he should be shielded from any charges related to his alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election results. However, the three judges presiding over the case did not seem receptive to this argument. During the proceedings, one judge posed a hypothetical scenario, questioning whether a president could face prosecution if they ordered SEAL Team 6 to assassinate a political rival. Trump's attorney responded, suggesting that such prosecution would only be possible if the president had been impeached and convicted first. While the Supreme Court is likely to have the final say on the extent of presidential immunity, Special Counsel Jack Smith is eager for a swift resolution to proceed with his case against Trump before the upcoming election.

World

South Korea banning dog meat

After nearly four decades of South Korean politicians vowing to end the dog meat industry, the country's Parliament nearly unanimously passed a bill yesterday making it illegal to breed, sell, and slaughter dogs for human consumption. This legislative move reflects the swiftly changing public sentiment surrounding the traditional practice in South Korea.

Despite having roots dating back centuries in South Korean culture, the consumption of dog meat is waning, particularly among younger generations. According to a 2022 survey by Gallup Korea, only 8% of South Koreans reported eating dog meat in the previous year, compared to 27% in 2015.

Animal rights advocates attribute this shift in attitude to the increasing number of pet dogs in South Korea. The country's Agriculture Ministry reported a surge in the canine population from 1.3 million in 2018 to over 3 million in 2022.

To facilitate the transition away from the dog meat industry, the new law includes a three-year grace period before taking effect. Additionally, local governments have made financial commitments to businesses reliant on dog meat.

Nevertheless, significant resistance persists. Dog meat farms and restaurants vehemently protested the bill, despite the concessions. In November, farmers even threatened to release 2 million dogs in Seoul as a form of protest.

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