🐂 Extremely online

Markets

The recent performance of the S&P 500 has been remarkable, with a substantial monthly gain of nearly 8.7%. This rally stands out as one of the most impressive Novembers in history. According to Bloomberg, since 1928, there have been fewer than 10 instances where the S&P 500 experienced a November surge of more than 8%. As we approach the end of the week, there is optimism that the momentum, akin to the staying power of Thanksgiving leftovers, can carry the index to a strong finish.

Retail

Black Friday is online

Forecasters aimed to downplay the significance of Black Friday this year, but it turns out that discounts only served to strengthen the shopping event. Despite analysts expressing a lukewarm outlook, Black Friday achieved a record-breaking $9.8 billion in online sales in the United States, marking a 7.5% increase from the previous year, according to Adobe Analytics.

Digging into the numbers:

On the Rise:

1. Mobile Shopping Dominance: Approximately $5.3 billion, or 54% of online sales, occurred through mobile devices. Adobe predicts that mobile purchasing will surpass desktop usage for the first time during this holiday season. Additionally, Salesforce reported that 79% of all shopping activity (browsing + buying) took place on mobile handsets.

2. Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL): The use of BNPL services, allowing shoppers to split payments into multiple installments, surged by 47% compared to the previous year, reaching $79 million on Black Friday. This trend signals resilience in a sector that has faced challenges in the post-Covid economy, with BNPL giant Klarna recently reporting its first quarterly profit in four years.

Trending Down:

1. Decline in Store-Branded Credit Cards: The popularity of store-branded credit cards, often acquired through incentivized offers at the register, has waned. New registrations for these cards dropped by 37% last year compared to 2015, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Potential factors include high-interest rates, which can exceed 30% on some store-branded cards, and a shift in consumer loyalty, as bargain-hunting Americans exhibit less brand loyalty and switch retailers at a higher rate than at any point since the onset of Covid, as per McKinsey.

Anticipated Cyber Monday Success:

The momentum is expected to continue on Cyber Monday, with Adobe predicting a record $12 billion in sales, representing a 5.4% increase from the previous year and making it the largest online shopping day in U.S. history. Retailers are gearing up to slash prices by 30% on electronics, a major driver of sales throughout the past week.

World

Israel–Hamas cease-fire holds as hostages and prisoners swapped.

On Sunday, Israel and Hamas completed their third exchange, marking the release of the first American hostage—a four-year-old girl. If finalized today, the swap would involve 50 women and children hostages held by Hamas exchanged for 150 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. The Prime Minister of Qatar, the country that facilitated the deal, informed the FT that the extension of the four-day cease-fire beyond Monday hinges on Hamas locating dozens of women and children hostages held by civilians and criminal groups. In the U.S., three students of Palestinian descent were shot and injured by a white man near Burlington, VT, on Saturday night, with authorities investigating the incident as a potential hate crime.

Legal

Many celebs being sued?

Last week, several prominent individuals, including hip-hop mogul Sean "Diddy" Combs, NYC Mayor Eric Adams, Guns N' Roses frontman Axl Rose, actor Jamie Foxx, and others, were sued in New York for alleged sexual abuse or harassment that reportedly occurred decades ago.

The timing of these lawsuits was deliberate, filed before the expiration of a New York law known as the Adult Survivors Act on Thursday. This law, effective since November 24, 2022, provided adult survivors with a one-year window to file civil claims for abuse and harassment, regardless of when the incidents allegedly occurred in the past. The lifting of the statute of limitations aimed to acknowledge that the trauma endured by survivors may have hindered them from coming forward earlier.

Former President Trump became the first person sued under this law, being found liable for sexually abusing writer E. Jean Carroll in the '90s and ordered to pay her $5 million in damages. Trump and other men mentioned in last week's suits have denied the accusations.

While celebrity cases have gained attention, the majority of the 2,500+ lawsuits filed under the Adult Survivors Act in the past year have centered around allegations of abuse at state prisons and local jails, as reported by the AP. Other claims have cited harassment in various businesses, including airports, spas, and hospital systems.

Taking a broader perspective, New York now joins a select group of states, including California and New Jersey, that have implemented "lookback windows," temporarily removing the statute of limitations for sexual assault claims.

U.S. Economy

Oil production

The United States is currently achieving record-high crude oil production at 13.2 million barrels per day, according to the Energy Information Administration. This surpasses the pre-Covid peak of 13.1 million barrels. The current prolific output is nearly double what was produced a decade ago and a substantial increase from the approximately 5 million barrels generated when President Obama took office, as highlighted by Bloomberg's Steven Dennis. The U.S. now stands as the world's leading oil producer, contributing 21% of global oil production in 2022. In comparison, Saudi Arabia holds the second position, accounting for 13%.