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Markets

News from the latest Fed meeting revealed that "various participants" are open to raising rates if inflation persists, causing stocks to plummet dramatically, leading to the Dow's worst day this month. However, there was a glimmer of hope as AI chipmaker Nvidia soared after-hours, surpassing Wall Street's lofty earnings expectations.

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Economy

Are We In a Recession?

A new Harris poll, highlighted by the Guardian yesterday, reveals a significant disconnect between public perception and the actual state of the economy.

Among the over 2,000 survey participants:

• 56% believe the US is in a recession, and 55% think the economy is shrinking, despite GDP growth.

• 72% think inflation is rising, though it has more than halved from a 2022 peak of 9.1% to between 3% and 4%.

• 49% believe unemployment is at a 50-year high, while it's actually near a 50-year low.

• 49% think the S&P 500 is declining, even though it has risen over 12% this year, with Wall Street increasing its year-end projections, and the Dow hitting record gains.

Why is there such a disconnect?

Despite easing inflation, the cost of groceries, housing, and other essentials remains high, with about two-thirds of respondents agreeing that it’s hard to appreciate positive economic news when they feel financially strained. Additionally, analysts have only recently revised their earlier predictions of an impending crash, with 9 out of 10 business economists now forecasting a soft landing, a stark contrast to Bloomberg Economics' October 2022 forecast of a 100% chance of recession by the following fall.

Media coverage also plays a role, as recent studies indicate a growing negativity in news reports, particularly regarding gas prices, which often trigger economic anxiety.

This poses a challenge for Joe Biden, as 58% of poll participants blame the current administration for what they perceive as a worsening economy. Changing this perception will be difficult, especially with more than 60% of respondents expressing skepticism towards economic news. Test your own economic perceptions against reality with this quiz from the Guardian.

Tech

NVIDIA To The Moon

Artificial Intelligence

Scarlett Johansson doesn’t like OpenAI

Scarlett Johansson was notably displeased when she involved her legal team after discovering an AI voice assistant developed by OpenAI sounded remarkably similar to her own voice.

Two letters were sent by Johansson's attorneys to OpenAI, urging the company to disclose the methods used to create the voice assistant.

The controversy arose when OpenAI introduced its new ChatGPT-4o model featuring "Voice Mode," which offered users five voice options, one of which bore a striking resemblance to Johansson's voice.

The situation took an intriguing turn when Johansson revealed that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman had approached her nine months prior, proposing that she lend her voice to the model, a proposition she declined. However, just before the feature's release, Altman contacted her again with the same request. Before Johansson could respond, Voice Mode debuted, leading to inquiries flooding her phone with messages asking, "Is this you?"

In the early hours of Monday morning, OpenAI announced the suspension of the voice in question.

Despite allegations, OpenAI denied using Johansson's actual voice, although Altman's reference to "her" in a post on X upon the release of the feature, alluding to a 2013 film where Johansson voices an AI, raised eyebrows.

This incident isn't Johansson's first legal tangle. In 2021, she sued Disney over the simultaneous streaming and theatrical release of her Avengers film, alleging breach of contract and financial loss due to underwhelming box office returns. The lawsuit was settled out of court for an undisclosed sum.

Johansson isn't alone in her legal battles concerning AI's use of creative works without creators' consent, as numerous authors, actors, and publications have taken legal action against OpenAI and other AI companies.

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